Across 1,456 graded bets the whale was right 49% of the time — and you are usually late to it. Which is why the price you'd pay decides the rest.
We watch a 50-wallet watchlist around the clock, and put every move they make in front of you with the price they paid and what is left for you at it. We don't promise it makes money, and we don't claim these wallets are good — our own record is below. We promise you stop finding out a day late.
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The price ladder
We graded every alert against what the whale paid for it. Others list entry
prices, and one of them puts a win rate beside them. What none of them does is
take the exchange fee off the top, or report the return in a way a follower could
have earned — averaging 1/p
turns a losing longshot book into “+1709% average ROI”. It is also the number that separated our
winners from our losers more consistently than anything else we measured, our
own AI's confidence included.
Return per $1 staked, by the price the whale paid.
When a whale got in early on a genuine underdog, following them worked — the market hadn't caught up, so there was still something left for you. Not the outright longshots, though: those lost.
Above 0.60 the whale was often still right — and you still lost, because you were buying the leftovers. This is the trade everyone copies.
So every alert shows it. A whale putting 30× their usual size into an outcome priced at 0.72 is impressive — and you are still being offered 28 cents of upside for 72 cents of risk. Both facts reach you, in the same message. What you do with them is yours.
Measured across May–August 2026, net of Polymarket's taker fee. These are small samples: the direction has held in every cut we have run, but no single band separates from chance at this sample size, so we treat entry price as something to show you rather than a rule we apply. We publish the numbers anyway, because the alternative is a win rate with no price attached.
Every measurement we publish goes to @whalesense_data — the numbers, the charts, and the findings that stop working. No signals, no pitch.
Read the channel →4,385 resolved positions from 69 wallets. Not one is distinguishable from luck — and all 25 of the largest are paid $4.2M in rebates for posting liquidity, which is not something a copier can do. The income is the flow, not the direction.
Read the measurement →What you get
Real format · Sample data · Not a current call
How it works
We watch a 50-wallet watchlist, drawn from Polymarket's top-100 leaderboards, 24/7 against Polymarket's public trade data. Every fill from a tracked whale gets captured, usually within seconds of landing on-chain.
Each position is weighed against the whale's history, the market context, the size relative to their norm — and the price already on the screen.
Pro sees it first; the free tier five minutes later. Only the calls that matter — we keep SKIPs internal.
Scale
Fifty top-ranked Polymarket wallets, every day.
A win rate without an entry price is marketing.
“63% win rate” tells you nothing if those entries averaged 0.70 — at that price you needed 70% just to break even. Every tracker publishes the first number. We publish both, the gap between them, and what is left after the exchange takes its fee.
Type
/track_record
in the bot: win rate, average entry price, and edge — by category, resolved
bets only, no curated highlights.
Pricing
FAQ
Polymarket is the largest prediction market platform — a place where people bet on real-world outcomes (elections, sports, crypto, geopolitics). Whales there often spot patterns retail misses. WhaleSense shows you what they're doing and breaks down why — so you decide informed, not blindly.
Because the price is the market's probability. Paying 0.72 means you need the outcome to happen more than 72% of the time just to break even. A whale who bought the same outcome at 0.40 has a completely different bet from the one you'd be making now — even though it's the same market, the same side, the same whale. That gap is what most trackers never show you.
No. WhaleSense provides AI-generated analysis of public on-chain trade data. We are not a registered investment advisor. Past whale performance does not guarantee future returns. Always do your own research. You bet, you own the outcome.
No. Each alert is research — what the whale did, why it might matter, what could go wrong. You decide. We've shipped BUYs that lost. BUY is our read, not a prediction. Sizing, timing, and risk management are yours.
Manual for the first cohort. /upgrade in the bot returns a USDC
address on Polygon — send $19, reply with the tx hash + your email, Pro is live
for 30 days. No card data stored, no auto-renewal — you only pay when you decide to.
Ask for a refund inside the first 30 days and the 19 USDC goes back to the address
you paid from — no reason needed, and we won't ask for one.
Yes. No auto-renewal — each Pro payment grants 30 days, and we never charge again unless you send the next payment. To stop, just don't renew. And for your first 30 days there is a full refund on request — USDC is irreversible and you are paying a stranger, so the guarantee is ours to give, not yours to argue for.
Pro: a median of about 2.5 minutes from the whale's last fill to your Telegram, and 97% of alerts inside five. A 60-second window to aggregate fragmented orders accounts for most of it; the rest is how fast Polymarket's own data publishes. Free: add a 5-minute delay so the Pro tier keeps its edge.
Worth being precise about, because it is not the same as being early. Whales build a position over a median of about 10 minutes, and we alert once they stop. Measured over 1,537 alerts, the median gap from a whale's first fill to your message is 11.4 minutes — so you are usually seeing a finished position, not joining one in progress, and the price has often already moved. That is why our own analysis so often says the whale likely entered lower.
We draw candidates from Polymarket's official top-100 leaderboards (overall + sports, weekly + monthly views) and keep 50 as the live watchlist. We refresh it regularly so wallets that stop trading rotate out.
What we don't claim: that these are skilled traders. We measured it, three different ways. On the only unbiased one — 4,385 resolved positions from 69 wallets — not one is distinguishable from luck in either direction. Separating skill from chance needs roughly 580 equal-sized positions; because whales bet wildly unequal amounts, the median wallet on our list is worth the statistical equivalent of 12. Every tracker that ranks whales by track record, ours included, is ranking noise at these volumes.
Treat the list as where the size is, not as who is good at this. The one thing that held across all three measurements: whales pay fair prices. Their edge over the price they bought at is zero within the error bars — and they are paid by the exchange for something else entirely.
No. We only deliver BUY and WATCH calls —
SKIP calls are recorded for our analytics but never wake you up.
Repeat alerts on the same position are suppressed for six hours — unless
the whale doubles their stake, which is the one thing worth waking you for.
Those arrive marked as a follow-on, showing what they held before and now.
You can also
/mute
anytime if you need a break.
Yes — there's a Discord, and it is brand new: right now joining means talking to the person who builds this, not a room full of traders. Come if you want to argue with a call, ask why an alert read the way it did, or push back on the numbers. That is what it is for at this size.